In partnership with
Welcome back to The High Ground—your football newsletter that glides smoother than a first-time pass in a rondo. Today we’re zooming out: not just United, but the whole Premier League through the lens of the models, the previews, and the numbers nerds who never sleep.
Short version? The title race still looks red (the Liverpool kind), the middle is chaos, and the trapdoor’s creaking under the new kids. Let’s break it down.
🏆 Title Picture: Slot’s Reign, Again?
The Opta supercomputer has Liverpool as the likeliest to retain, edging Arsenal and City. That’s not a wild punt; it’s a weighted read on squad strength, recent performance, and schedule shape. City remain City (even without peak KDB minutes), Arsenal are the algorithm’s No. 2 chaser, and the margin between the top three is thinner than a goal-line tech graphic. (Opta Analyst, Yahoo Sports)
Why it tracks: Liverpool’s spine held, the press is still mean, and Arne Slot didn’t break what Klopp built—he streamlined it. Opening night vs Bournemouth will say plenty about throttle settings. (Opta Analyst)
🎢 The European Scramble: Palace? Newcastle? Chelsea?
Models love volatility in the europack. Newcastle and Villa sit in the mix, Chelsea’s top-four odds are real but not banker-level, and there’s a sneaky path for Crystal Palace to sniff Europe if the attack sustains its spring uptick. That’s not a meme; it shows up in the probabilities. (Opta Analyst, Reddit)
Read the room: Media previews (SI, ESPN) have this tier as a blender: Chelsea/Newcastle/Villa/Spurs/Brighton/Palace rotating from 5th–9th depending on injuries, set-piece luck, and who remembers how to defend transitions. (SI, ESPN.com)
🧨 Big-Club Wobble Watch
The headline-grabber: several projections keep Man United and Spurs hovering around the bottom half possibility space. United’s rebuild raises the floor, but the models don’t forget last season’s 15th-place mess. Spurs are volatile year-to-year. Translation: variance, not doom.
Context matters: United’s additions (Šeško & friends) boost finishing, but the model is conservative until the midfield control shows up in chance creation and suppression. Early-season returns will swing this fast.
🧗 Promoted Trio: Can Anyone Break the Curse?
Welcome back Leeds, Burnley, Sunderland. Bad news: the last two seasons, all three promoted sides went straight back down—and the base rates say it could happen again. Opta’s probabilities lean that way; pundits on the PL site do, too. (Wikipedia, Opta Analyst, Premier League)
Leeds: physically supersized in the window; lots of height, pressing energy, Elland Road bounce. The risk? Fitness up top and PL-speed decision making.
Burnley: pragmatic under Scott Parker, veteran reinforcements help, but shot suppression at PL level is the real test.
Sunderland: vibes are immaculate, experience isn’t. Le Bris-ball is interesting; the model hates unknowns.
Bottom line: If one stays up, Leeds’ physical upgrade plus Elland Road chaos feels the most “breaker of curses” according to multiple previews.
The Business Brief Executives Actually Trust
In a world of sensational headlines and shallow analysis, The Daily Upside stands apart. Founded by former bankers and seasoned journalists, it delivers crisp, actionable insights executives actually use to make smarter decisions.
From market-moving developments to deep dives on business trends, The Daily Upside gives leaders clarity on what matters — without the noise.
That’s why over 1 million readers, including C-suite executives and senior decision-makers, start their day with it.
No fluff. No spin. Just business clarity.
🥊 Middle-Tier Mayhem: Welcome to the Knife Fight
This is where seasons are won in spreadsheets and lost on second balls.
Chelsea / Newcastle / Villa: European spots within reach; depth + set pieces = swing points. (SI)
Brighton / Palace: data darlings with clear patterns; if Palace’s attack sustains, the door to 7th cracks open. (Opta Analyst)
Brentford / West Ham / Forest / Bournemouth: churn clubs. Lose two key starters and you’re 14th; keep them healthy and you’re 9th. (Yes, the model basically says “coin flip, but smarter.”) (Opta Analyst)
📉 Relegativon Math: Who Stands on the Trapdoor?
The computers throw the highest relegation risk on the promoted three, then spread danger across Wolves, Fulham, and one of the “stable” mid-table lot if injuries strike. Pundits echo it (often swapping which veteran club gets dragged in). (Opta Analyst, Premier League, NBC Sports)
📊 The Numbers That Matter (Opening-Day Edition)
Title likelihood (range): Liverpool/Arsenal/City lead the probability stack; order varies by model, but all three sit well above the rest. (Opta Analyst, Yahoo Sports)
Top-four chaos: Next tier includes Chelsea, Newcastle, Villa; none cross 50% in most public model snapshots.
Bottom-half alerts: Multiple projections flirt with United and Spurs outside the top eight; not predictions—probabilities.
Promoted-team precedent: Back-to-back seasons where all three went down; 2025–26 could be the hat-trick unless someone breaks serve.
🔭 What We’ll Be Watching in Week 1–4
Liverpool throttle settings vs Bournemouth (are they still chance-monster efficient?).
Arsenal chance quality vs low blocks—Gyökeres movement the missing puzzle piece? (implied in previews).
City control without peak KDB minutes—rest defense > vibes.
Leeds/Burnley/Sunderland defensive concessions per shot: if that spikes early, the model’s pessimism hardens.
High Ground takeaway: The spreadsheets don’t hand out trophies—they hand out warning labels. Right now those labels say:
Title: Liverpool/Arsenal/City, pick your flavor.
Europe: six-team battle, bring depth.
Trapdoor: promoted trio plus whoever loses their best player for eight weeks.
There’s room to surprise—there always is—but the models are cold for a reason. Prove them wrong.
