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Welcome back to The High Ground—a football newsletter that’s as inviting as scoring an open goal.
Promotion used to be a nightmare. You arrive in the Premier League, get steamrolled, and go straight back down. That’s been the trend for two seasons running.
But right now, three clubs—Sunderland, Leeds, Burnley—aren’t playing for scraps. They’re playing to stay... and maybe more.
The Unlikely Ascent
Through nine matchdays, all three have posted wins. Sunderland stunned Chelsea, Burnley edged out Wolves and Leeds downed West Ham. That kind of weekend sweep from promoted sides hasn’t happened since late 2020 (or 2018, if you discount empty stadiums).
Together, they’ve collected 38 points total—a number only matched twice in Premier League history at this stage.
Sunderland currently sit in the top tier of the league, making them one of the few promoted sides ever to crack high into the table so early.
They’re not just surviving: they’re threatening.
Strategy Over Splurge
What’s changed? Tactics, recruitment, realism.
Directness over possession. Leeds, Burnley, Sunderland don’t obsess with controlling play—they make moves when it matters.
Set pieces have become weapons. Burnley (45.1%) and Sunderland (42.1%) lead the league in the share of shots from dead-ball situations.
Clever signings. Leeds overhauled with physical players. Sunderland focused on youth and versatility. Burnley’s switch from a back five to 4–2–3–1 opened up new attacking avenues.
These are not desperate flurries. These are calculated approaches designed to weather storms and strike when others falter.
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The Reality Check
Data models warn: the form might not last.
Expected points (xP) data suggests Leeds should be higher, while Sunderland & Burnley are overachieving relative to their chance quality.
Also, only nine out of 46 teams that started with ≥10 points by matchday 9 have been relegated. The odds lean toward survival—but danger is never far.
Momentum helps. Belief helps more. But the Premier League is a minefield: one bad stretch can undo months of work.
What to Watch Next
Can Leeds’ high turnovers (winning the ball back deep in opponent half) remain a strength?
Will Burnley sustain their attacking threat while defending against teams with more resources?
Can Sunderland balance ambition with caution, especially on the road?
If they navigate this stretch well, this trio might not just survive — they could set a new benchmark for what promotion looks like.
High Ground takeaway: The “promotion curse” was never invincible — it was efficient.
Sunderland, Leeds, and Burnley aren’t hoping to avoid historic relegation. They’re trying to break curses.
This season might not just be about survival. It might be about rewriting the rules.
