Ballon d’Or 2025: Who’s Got the Numbers to Back the Hype?

Welcome back to The High Ground — where we treat football like a fine espresso: strong, a little bit bitter, and best enjoyed with stats you can brag about in the group chat.

The 30-man shortlist for the 2025 Ballon d’Or is here, and it’s as stacked as a PSG squad photo. Forget just “form” or “fame” — we’re looking at who’s got the numbers to actually justify lifting that golden orb in September.

🇸🇪 Viktor Gyökeres – 54 goals in 52 games for Sporting CP. Thirty-nine in the league — the most in Portugal since Mário Jardel was out here doing cheat codes in 2001. Earned himself an Arsenal move.

🇳🇴 Erling Haaland – Premier League top scorer (34 goals), best minutes-per-goal ratio (119). The Norse cyborg isn’t slowing down.

🇫🇷 Kylian Mbappé – Most goals in Europe’s top 5 leagues (31), joint-leader in non-penalty goals with Lewandowski. First season at Real Madrid — already scary.

🇪🇸 Raphinha – 56 goal involvements (34G, 22A), equalled Ronaldo’s UCL record of 21 in a season. Almost broke Figo’s assist record.

🇪🇬 Mohamed Salah – 47 league goal involvements, breaking the all-time Premier League season record. Nobody does consistent chaos like Mo.

🇲🇦 Achraf Hakimi – 108 open-play chances created, more than any defender in Europe. Basically a winger who occasionally remembers to defend.

🇫🇷 Michael Olise – Most big chances created in Europe’s top 5 leagues, second in assists (15) and open-play creation (75). Bayern got a bargain.

🇪🇸 Pedri – Master of the “pre-assist.” Most passes before a chance in Europe (58) and the most under-pressure through balls in the UCL.

🇪🇸 Vitinha – UCL king of line-breaking passes under pressure (137) — and four of them led to goals inside 10 seconds.

🇩🇪 Florian Wirtz – 10G, 12A from open play — one of just six in Europe’s big leagues to hit double figures in both.

🇮🇹 Gianluigi Donnarumma – Clean sheets in 34% of games, 71% save rate. Ligue 1 + UCL double with PSG.

🇵🇹 Nuno Mendes – Most duels won in the UCL (119) and joint-second for interceptions. High-speed brick wall.

🇵🇹 João Neves – Most tackles in the UCL (57), second in duels (107). Also bagged 8 Ligue 1 assists.

🇳🇱 Virgil van Dijk – Premier League’s top “triple line-breaker” passer — breaking all three defensive lines 10 times.

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🇦🇷 Alexis Mac Allister – Started more goal-scoring moves than anyone in the PL (13). Arsenal fans, look away.

🏴 Declan Rice – Career-best 9G + 10A. Also scored two direct free-kicks in a single UCL knockout tie… against Real Madrid.

🇪🇸 Fabián Ruiz – 90.3% pass accuracy over ~4,000 mins. Clutch goals in UCL semis and Club World Cup semis.

🇳🇱 Denzel Dumfries – 11 goals as a defender. Torched Barcelona in the UCL semis with 2G + 3A.

🇫🇷 Ousmane Dembélé – 49 goal involvements for PSG (35G, 14A), 14 of them in their first-ever UCL win.

🇬🇳 Serhou Guirassy – 13 goals in 14 UCL games for Dortmund, highest in club history.

🇦🇷 Lautaro Martínez – Equalled Inter’s UCL single-season scoring record (9G).

🇸🇨 Cole Palmer – Five goal involvements across two finals for Chelsea. Cold in name, colder in finals.

🇫🇷 Désiré Doué – 30 goal involvements at age 20. Only Yamal had more while under 21.

🇪🇸 Lamine Yamal – Europe’s dribble king (161 successful). First in shots after carries (56) and chances after carries (35). Just turned 18.

High Ground takeaway: This year’s Ballon d’Or race isn’t just about who scored the most — it’s about who changed games. Salah broke records, Mbappé conquered Madrid, Gyökeres turned Portugal into his personal training ground, and Yamal made the entire sport feel like it’s running in slow motion for him.

Prediction? This shortlist is deep, but it’s hard to look past the holy trinity of Yamal, Salah, and Raphinha.

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